Economic and Social Impact of Drug Policies · 8.5 Economic Benefits of Regulatory Policies

The criterion is not established.

Mexico has legal non-prosecution and amnesty mechanisms that may prevent certain prison admissions or periods of incarceration. Proyecto Escudo in Tijuana also documented a reduction in incarceration risk and modeled a decrease in the incarceration-cost component associated with the intervention.

However, these elements do not establish an effective and contemporary reduction in incarceration costs. Legal mechanisms may potentially reduce prison admissions or days of incarceration, but no verifiable estimate was identified linking their implementation to persons or prison days actually avoided, marginal incarceration costs, and an observed reduction in public expenditure.

The Proyecto Escudo evidence is localized and relates to a historical intervention. Although it documents an observed reduction in incarceration risk and models avoided incarceration costs, it does not demonstrate an actual reduction in prison budgets or expenditure. The evaluation also shows that initial training, intervention, and treatment costs were higher, and therefore does not establish net fiscal savings.

No current, national, and methodologically reproducible estimate was identified attributing a reduction in penitentiary expenditure to drug policies, alternatives to incarceration, amnesty, or other regulatory mechanisms. The existence of mechanisms capable of preventing incarceration does not, by itself, amount to a verifiable reduction in incarceration costs.

Under the nexus criterion applied to economic indicators, modeled or potential savings are insufficient: there must be evidence of an effective, traceable, and attributable reduction in costs or expenditure.

Accordingly, a current and verifiable reduction in incarceration costs attributable to drug policy is not established. The red classification reflects insufficient economic evidence directly linked to the object of the indicator and does not imply that alternative measures have no potential to generate savings. Factor X does not apply.